Ohio 2004 Presidential Elections:
Results, Summary, Charts and Spreadsheets
© James Q. Jacobs. All Rights Reserved.
Scroll Down for the Charts and Results
Summary
Return to: How
Kerry Votes were Switched to Bush Votes
Cuyahoga County Precinct Level Analysis
NEW
Access Database: Cuyahoga
Results with Probability Sorts
cuyahoga_precincts.mdb — All
Cuyahoga Precincts with Probability Sorting  912 Kb
NEW July
2006: Updated Spreadsheets with Probability Sorting:
Cuyahoga
County
Official
Results,
with
Location
Subsets
Six Excel spreadsheets displaying
results of statistical analysis.
NEW Jan.
22, 2007: Extended Analysis of Probability Subsets
Continued study following
on cuyahoga_probability.xls above.
Kd represents a wrongprecinct vote changing from Kerry to
disqualified.
The trend evidences the crossvoting.
The higher the probability a Kerry wrongprecinct vote changes to disqualified, the
higher the disqualified percentage.
Where is the crossvoting concentrated? Under random circumstances
it would not be concentrated where the most Kerry votes
are switched. This pattern is very suspicious!!!
NEW
2008: cuyahoga_probability_data.xls 
KB Probability Subsets  0.7 Mb cuyahoga_probability_data.xls 
Probability Subsets  0.7 Mb
cuyahoga_3_precincts_subsets.xls 
Probability Subsets  0.28 Mb
cuyahoga_4_precincts_subsets.xls 
Probability Subsets  0.24 Mb
Data before adding Probability Sorting

The spreadsheets are part of my Cuyahoga
County analysis and the data organization is explained therein.
Read the article to understand the symbols used in the spreadsheets
and charts.
The updated spreadsheets represent a new stage in the study; I
restarted the analysis with probability sorting added. Missing
data was found and inserted, and slight errors were corrected.
Crossvote probabilities
for precincts and for locations were added, subset sorts were added,
precincts and locations were resorted, probability sorts were
analyzed and compared, and statistical summaries were added. Some
significant statistical anomalies are highlighted. Charts of
new results are incorporated into these pages.
The probability sorting reveals where crossvoting precincts
were combined.
Precincts with the highest
probability of Kerry crossvotes
switching
to Bush
are in areas with the highest Kerry support. Was this intentional manipulation?
The workbooks are ready for use in statistical programs and projects.
I consider them reliable and they supersede my previous Cuyahoga
County results files. Let me know if you detect any problem whatsoever.
Joe Knapp did the initial heavy lifting, and gets loud applause
for building, from the official County election text files, the
original spreadsheet I used. I manipulated the data many times,
and any errors are mine. Amidst the millions of numbers and digits,
I hope there are no errors. I need to know
if you find anything, no matter how slight.
Additional subset probability sorts by minor candidate probabilities
have been added. This feature in cuyahoga_2.xls produced
significant findings regarding intended thirdparty voting, and
can serve as a model for other researh questions. In particular,
note the changes in percentage of votes to minor party candidates
when there is a 1.0 probability that switched Kerry votes will
be counted for either minor candidate. In the worksheet "2_2_Locations" in cuyahoga_2.xls,
compare the 1.0 probability percentages with the 0.0 probability
precincts. At these 2 ballot order and 2 precinct locations, Peroutka
received 1.932% of the vote in precincts where switched Kerry votes
count for Peroutka, compared with 0.142% in precincts where switched
Kerry votes count as Bush votes. In Jan. 2007, I uploaded an extended
analysis spreadsheet, cuyahoga_precinct_subsets.xls with
the same comparison for other subset, plus numerous charts.
Vote percentages are five to near 10 times higher for Badnarik and Peroutka
in the
precincts
with a 1.0 probability that Kerry crossvotes count for those candidates.
This indisputable, descriptive statistical evidence quantifies the crossvoting
problem.
Again, to understand the spreadsheet notation, read "How
Kerry Votes were Switched to Bush Votes." To view some
of the latest statistical results, check the highlighting in
the spreadsheet summaries. One reason the spreadsheet are released
is so others can study the data without having to also do the
tedious and timeconsuming probability sorts. They are also a
data foundation from which many questions, in
addition to those herein, can be addressed.

Scroll down for tables, charts, and graphs.
Back
to the Main Spreadsheets Page
The following table and chart display the state results sorted
by county voting methods.
Some of my statewide analysis preceded release of the official results.
Official
Results are in the spreadsheets.
2004 Ohio Election Results
Summary 

State 
EVote 
OpScan 
Punch Card 
Population 
11,435,798 
1,799,299 
1,382,208 
8,254,291 
# Voters 
7,979,639 
1,344,131 
925,806 
5,709,702 
# Votes 
5,574,476 
870,237 
670,058 
4,034,181 
% Votes 

15.61 
12.02 
72.37 
% Cast 
69.86 
64.74 
72.38 
70.65 
# Provisional 
155,428 
21,590 
17,078 
116,760 
% Provisional 
2.79 
2.48 
2.55 
2.89 
Kerry 
2,659,664 
451,975 
293,998 
1,913,691 
Bush 
2,796,147 
406,697 
363,895 
2,025,555 
Badnarik 
14,331 
2,967 
1,177 
10,187 
Peroutka 
11,614 
1,986 
990 
8,638 
NonVotes 
92,720 
6,612 
9,998 
76,110 
% Kerry 
47.711 
51.937 
43.877 
47.437 
% Bush 
50.160 
46.734 
54.308 
50.210 
% Badnarik 
0.257 
0.341 
0.176 
0.253 
% Peroutka 
0.208 
0.228 
0.148 
0.214 
% NonVotes 
1.663 
0.760 
1.492 
1.887 
Counties 
88 
7 
13 
68 
Mean Bush Shift 
0.903 
0.615 
0.536 
1.003 
